4 reasons Australia may have a sharp but short recession.

Below are four main reasons Peter Switzer, Founder of Swtizer Financial Group believes Australia’s future economy could give way to a notable economic comeback despite the current recession, which he deems may be sharp but short.

1. Spending is picking up. Adam Cranston AFR wrote recently in the AFR:
   “Economists largely support the view that the recovery in spending is real and the recovery on track.”

2. Predictions that we’d see a 10% contraction for 2020 have been downgraded.
3. On the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence index, David Plank, the Head of Economics at ANZ said: “On the back of strong gains in the ‘economic conditions’ subindices, confidence strengthened further last week. Nine weekly gains in a row is unprecedented…” And this indicates that the consumer, who was spooked and not spending in March started to get positive in April. It might not help the June quarter much but should help the September and December quarters as the economy progressively reopens.
4. China is rebounding with its latest Purchasing Managers Index finding the services sector at a reading of 55 is the highest since late 2010.

‘as we look at indicators about our future, which is getting better in June, it’s likely the months of July, August and September will gradually reduce our recession fears, provided no second-wave problems force us back to our homes.’ Commented Mr Switzer.

Click here to read Mr Swtizer’s full article:

This content is extracted from the article ‘Put away the razor blades. The recession will be sharp but short’ by Peter Swtizer | Switzer Daily | Thursday 4^th June 2020.